PROJECTION OF NEW CANCER CASES IN THE STATE OF WEST BENGAL, INDIA - 2020
Estimated district wise new cancer cases in West Bengal-2020
Keywords:Projection - Cancer incidence - Magnitude of cancer –District wise– West Bengal
It is essential to project cancer incidence for planning cancer control actions, health care and allocation of resources in specific region. Till date no projection of cancer cases according to primary sites and district wise distribution of the cancer cases for the state of West Bengal are available in the literature. In West Bengal only one Population Based Cancer Registry (PBCR) for Kolkata is ongoing cancer registration in West Bengal which is based on urban population only but there is no Population Based Cancer Registry (PBCR) for rural West Bengal Kolkata. PBCR is helpful for the projection of cancer cases in any region. Here the cancer burden for the state of West Bengal had been made to understand the magnitude of cancer problem for the calendar year 2020.
The age, sex, primary site and district-wise cancer incidences were projected on the basis of data along with populations covered by the PBCRs obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) published by National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research (NCDIR), Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) for the period 2005-2014.
Thus pooled age-sex specific cancer incidence rates for urban area were obtained by taking weighted averages of 18 PBCRs of India based on exclusively urban population with respective registry populations as weights.
Pooled age sex specific cancer incidence rates for rural area were obtained by taking weighted averages of 15 PBCRs of India based on rural, district and state population with respective registry populations as weights.
The pooled incidence rates were assumed to represent the incidence rates for the state of West Bengal. Populations of this state according to age and sex exposed to the risk of development of cancer in 2020 were obtained from the report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the state for 2020. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled incidence rates to estimate the projected number of cancer cases by age, sex and site of cancer for 2020. The projections were carried out for the various leading sites as well as for ‘all sites’ of cancer.
The leading site of cancers, namely those of tobacco related cancers, breast and cervical cancers in women account for over 50 to 60 % of all cancers. Adjustments were made for increasing tobacco habits, exposure to arsenic, Gangetic delta region and also adjustments for increasing trends of lung, prostate, mouth, tongue, and larynx in males and that for breast, cervix uteri, ovary, gall bladder and lung in females were made, the estimates may further increase. The main factors contributing to high burden of cancer over the years are increase in the population size as well as increase in proportion of elderly population, urbanization, Gangetic delta and arsenic exposure.
This projection of cancer incidence will help the policy planners for strengthening and augmenting the existing diagnostic/treatment facilities. Also it will help the researchers to plan their research activities in the field of cancer.
Keywords: Projection - Cancer incidence - Magnitude of cancer –District wise– West Bengal
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